O/U 1.5 Rounds

Logged 12 Nov 2026, 13:01 UTC

• Flyweight is the lowest-finish men's division in the UFC, so the large majority of bouts survive past 2:30 of Round 2; the base rate near 62% anchors the estimate.
• Hasan is 10-0 with a recent second-round KO win, signaling finishing upside that pushes toward the Under.
• Gurule was submitted in Round 1 (3:19) in his most recent fight, suggesting vulnerability to an early finish and further Under pressure.
• Countervailing signal: Hasan's latest win came at 2:28 of Round 2 — a finish that itself would have landed just Under the threshold, but it also shows his fights can extend into Round 2; many first-round stoppage attempts fail and the fight then almost always crosses the threshold.
• Neither fighter's style profile beyond these results is documented in the retrieved facts, so the adjustment off the base rate is kept modest: two recent quick-finish data points against a strong divisional prior.

What would change it: A documented late-notice injury, weight-cut problem, or a clear stylistic mismatch (e.g., Hasan's knockout power versus Gurule's durability decline) confirmed before fight night would push this meaningfully toward Under.

+10.0 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: From general knowledge of UFC flyweight bouts, roughly 60-65% of fights pass the midpoint of Round 2, since flyweights have the lowest finish rate among men's divisions and most fights that end early end in Round 1; no retrieved fact supplied this threshold rate directly.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v2), not by hand.

Formed blind at 60.0%, without sight of the price; published at 50.0%, the market’s 40.0% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.