LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 20:15 UTCContract settles 24 Oct 2026Last checked 23 Oct 2026, 20:10 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-23T20:10:28.990Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

66.5%bid 66.0% / ask 67.0%24h volume $561K · liquidity $337Kas of 23 Oct, 20:10 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

69.8%against a market price of 66.5% at the timeNO

Logged 19 Oct 2026, 15:01 UTC · Brier 0.4865

The cross-region class rate (LPL over LEC, 5/7 at Worlds 2025) is the anchor: LPL has structurally outperformed LEC in recent international play.
Seeding mismatch strengthens the favorite: Anyone's Legend is the LPL's first seed while Karmine Corp entered as EMEA's third seed via the Play-In, so this pairing sits at the stronger end of the LPL-vs-LEC class rather than the average.
Countervailing signal: Karmine Corp's 2026 body of work is strong (42-16 series, 93-53 games, 3-0 Play-In Grand Final win), and a best-of-one carries high variance, which caps how far above the base rate the favorite should be pushed.
Both teams' season win rates are nearly identical (AL 91-50 games; KC 93-53 games), so raw record adds little beyond the regional-strength adjustment; no injury or roster news was established to move the line further.

What would change it: A confirmed starter absence or illness for Anyone's Legend, or evidence that LPL-LEC strength has converged in 2026 scrim/match data, would push the estimate toward 0.60 or below.

Settlement source

+3.2 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: At Worlds 2025, LPL teams won 5 of 7 individual games against LEC teams (~71%).

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 73.0%, without sight of the price; published at 69.8%, the market’s 66.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 23 Oct 2026, 21:37 UTC · recorded 24 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

At Worlds 2025, LPL teams won 5 of 7 individual games against LEC teams. [web:106] as of 2025-11-09 · esports.net
Anyone’s Legend is a Chinese professional League of Legends team in the LPL and entered Worlds 2026 as the LPL’s first seed. [web:5] as of 2026-10-18 · dotesports.com · within 14 days of this call
Karmine Corp is a professional League of Legends team in the LEC and entered Worlds 2026 as EMEA’s third seed through the Play-In. [web:33] as of 2026-10-18 · mid.gg · within 14 days of this call
Karmine Corp had a 42–16 series record and a 93–53 game record in the retrieved 2026 team statistics. [web:77] as of 2026-10-18 · mid.gg · within 14 days of this call
Karmine Corp most recently defeated MVK Esports 3–0 in the Worlds Play-In Grand Final, a three-game margin. [web:16] as of 2026-10-18 · strafe.com · within 14 days of this call
Anyone’s Legend’s 2026 season record was 91 wins and 50 losses. [web:80] as of 2026-10-12 · stadio.gg · within 14 days of this call
Anyone’s Legend’s listed Worlds lineup is Breathe, Tarzan, Shanks, Hope, and Kael. [web:32] as of 2026-10-02 · strafe.com
Karmine Corp’s listed Worlds lineup is Canna, Yike, kyeahoo, Caliste, and Busio. [web:35] as of 2026-10-14 · theclick.gg · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 66.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $560,502 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0259 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.