Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

TradingContract settles 1 Jan 2028Last checked 19 Oct 2026, 09:05 UTC

Data may be delayed. These prices have not refreshed recently, so treat them as a last known reading rather than a current quote.

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-19T09:05:27.043Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

0.5%bid 0.4% / ask 0.7%24h volume $72 · liquidity $60Kas of 19 Oct, 09:05 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-20T18:00:40.066Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

no two-sided marketnobody is quoting both sides, so there is no price to show24h volume –as of 20 Oct, 18:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 17 years apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Jan 1, 28

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to…

Settles Jan 1, 45

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Sorin Grindeanu, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Crossbook forecast

37.0%against a market price of 20.3% at the timeOpen

Logged 8 Sept 2026, 15:11 UTC

Grindeanu is PSD's unanimously nominated candidate and leads both PSD and the Chamber of Deputies, giving him the strongest institutional platform of any contender.
This is a first-past-the-post market: if Muresan or any other candidate passes a confidence vote before Grindeanu, this resolves NO, which caps Grindeanu's probability even though he remains a leading name.
Grindeanu himself admitted in mid-August he could not assemble the required 233 votes, and the only enumerated majority formula (PSD-PNL-UDMR at 234) is a single vote above threshold amid severe PSD-PNL tensions.
USR has ruled out voting for any PSD government, and UDMR has denied it would back any presidential designee, narrowing Grindeanu's coalition arithmetic.
President Dan has refused to choose between Grindeanu and Muresan, judged that neither could pass, and set no deadline — signals the presidency is not pushing Grindeanu's candidacy.
The resolution window runs to end-2027, giving Grindeanu multiple paths: a September 2026 deal, a later realignment, or early elections (the dissolution deadline has already lapsed), where PSD as largest party would likely make him PM.
The September 1 consultations and Grindeanu's own statement that a designation could come within days suggest an active, near-term decision point where he is one of only two named contenders.
Grindeanu's 2017 precedent — ousted as PM by his own party within months — shows PSD's willingness to discard him, a real risk to his durability as nominee over a 15-month window.

What would change it: President Dan designates Muresan or a technocratic candidate whose cabinet passes a confidence vote in September 2026, or PSD replaces Grindeanu as its nominee, either of which would collapse the YES probability to near zero or below 10% respectively.

+16.7 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: In prolonged parliamentary deadlocks where the largest party formally nominates its own leader for PM, that nominee ultimately becomes the next confirmed prime minister roughly a third to a half of the time, with failure modes including rival coalitions, technocratic compromise candidates, and intra-party replacement.

Chosen by hand.

What this call was reading

On 24 June 2026, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) unanimously nominated its leader Sorin Grindeanu as its candidate for prime minister. as of 2026-06-24 · romania-insider.com · within 90 days of this call
Sorin Grindeanu has served as President of the Chamber of Deputies since 24 June 2025 and as president of PSD since 7 November 2025. as of 2026-08-05 · en.wikipedia.org · within 90 days of this call
In late June 2026, President Nicusor Dan declined to choose between Sorin Grindeanu (PSD's nominee) and Siegfried Muresan (the right-wing parties' nominee) for prime minister, saying it was certain neither would pass a confidence vote. as of 2026-06-30 · informat.ro · within 90 days of this call
As of early September 2026, President Nicusor Dan still had two names under consideration for prime minister, Sorin Grindeanu and Siegfried Muresan, and USR had announced it would not vote for any PSD government. as of 2026-08-31 · national.ro · within 90 days of this call
On 17 August 2026, Grindeanu acknowledged he could not present President Dan with the 233 parliamentary votes needed to approve a new cabinet. as of 2026-08-17 · romania-insider.com · within 90 days of this call
A PSD-PNL-UDMR formula would reach only 234 parliamentarians, just one vote above the required threshold, but political tensions between PSD and PNL make this option very difficult. as of 2026-09-08 · b1tv.ro · within 90 days of this call
UDMR leader Kelemen Hunor denied on 31 August 2026 that his party would agree to vote for any prime-ministerial candidate designated by President Dan regardless of who it was. as of 2026-08-31 · stiriletransilvaniei.eu · within 90 days of this call
In mid-July 2026, President Nicusor Dan said there was no name for a prime minister who could gather a majority and that he had not set a deadline for a new nomination. as of 2026-07-15 · informat.ro · within 90 days of this call
On 27 August 2026, President Nicusor Dan announced new consultations with parties on nominating a prime minister would occur on September 1, expressing confidence a majority for a stable government would be found. as of 2026-08-27 · romania-insider.com · within 90 days of this call
The 60-day deadline after which the president could dissolve parliament and call early elections, counted from the first failed nomination vote, expired on 20 August 2026. as of 2026-08-20 · romania-insider.com · within 90 days of this call
On 31 August 2026, Grindeanu said President Dan could make a prime-ministerial designation in the following days and that he would like a fully empowered government in place by 15 September 2026. as of 2026-08-31 · stiriletransilvaniei.eu · within 90 days of this call
Romania's next scheduled parliamentary election is not due until 2028. as of 2026-06-25 · prismnews.com · within 90 days of this call
Sorin Grindeanu previously served as Prime Minister of Romania from January to June 2017 before being removed by a parliamentary motion of no confidence. as of 2026-08-05 · en.wikipedia.org · within 90 days of this call

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $72 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0178 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.