Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Fri, 4 Sept 2026, 18:10 UTCContract settles 11 Sept 2026Last checked 4 Sept 2026, 18:05 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-04T18:05:26.650Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

45.5%bid 45.0% / ask 46.0%24h volume $100K · liquidity $248Kas of 4 Sept, 18:05 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

47.0%against a market price of 59.0% at the timeNO

Logged 30 Aug 2026, 03:12 UTC · Brier 0.2209

Signal is weak: no confirmed venue, probable pitchers, lineups, injuries, weather, or current form are provided, and the listed June 14 start conflicts with the Aug/Sep 2026 market timing.
The date/settlement inconsistency and tiny $21 volume make this look stale or thin rather than informationally efficient, pushing the estimate toward the baseball base rate instead of a strong team-specific view.
After forming the independent estimate, the 59% market price is materially above mine; the divergence is plausibly explained by illiquidity, metadata error, or traders knowing a resolved/late-update detail not included here.
If Cleveland is indeed home and the clubs are broadly comparable, Detroit should be a modest underdog; only a clear Tigers pitching/lineup edge or confirmation the market is effectively already decided would justify moving up.

What would change it: Confirmed probable pitchers/lineups/venue showing a real Detroit edge, or evidence the game outcome is already known, would sharply change the estimate.

Settlement source

-12.0 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Generic MLB home teams win about 54%, so if Detroit is the road team in an otherwise even AL Central matchup the Tigers start near 46%.

Chosen by hand.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 5 Sept 2026, 00:01 UTC · recorded 5 Sept 2026, 00:01 UTC · entered by handsettlement

Polymarket prices this at 45.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $99,870 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0074 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.