Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledContract settles 28 Aug 2026Last checked 22 Aug 2026, 00:20 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-08-22T00:20:18.709Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

49.5%bid 49.0% / ask 50.0%24h volume $580K · liquidity $242Kas of 22 Aug, 00:20 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView the event containing this market on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

46.0%against a market price of 50.5% at the timeNO

Logged 21 Aug 2026, 22:56 UTC · Brier 0.2116

Signal: Cincinnati outdoor hard and the US swing likely favor Tiafoe's serve-plus-first-strike profile and comfort in North America over Musetti's more clay/variety-leaning strengths, so I shade YES-Musetti below even.
Narrative risk: Musetti's rising pedigree and highlight-reel shotmaking can tempt a favorite-longshot storyline, but on fast hard courts the repeatable edges are usually serve/return and first-ball control rather than aesthetics.
Time-decay is modest with 7 days to close: the main mover would be injury, withdrawal, draw context, or revealed form; my 0.46 is only slightly below Polymarket's 50.5%, a divergence plausibly explained by market balancing/home-fan flow rather than a large model gap.

What would change it: Reliable news that Tiafoe is injured/withdrawn or that Musetti has clearly superior current hard-court form/ranking would move this estimate upward sharply.

Settlement source

-4.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: For a near pick'em ATP hard-court match between established top-level players, the base rate starts around 50% for the first-listed player before surface/home adjustments.

Chosen by hand.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 29 Aug 2026, 02:06 UTC · recorded 29 Aug 2026, 02:06 UTC · entered by handsettlement

Polymarket prices this at 49.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $580,001 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0040 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.