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Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 22 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTCLast checked 22 Aug 2026, 23:25 UTC
PM

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-08-22T23:25:48.573Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

36.5%bid 36.0% / ask 37.0%24h volume $6K · liquidity $290Kas of 22 Aug, 23:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView the event containing this market on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

41.0%against a market price of 31.5% at the timeNO

Logged 18 Aug 2026, 02:44 UTC · Brier 0.1681

  • An Aug 22, 2026 date places this in preseason week 3, where starters play minimally and outcomes are driven by depth-chart randomness, so any strong prior about either team's quality is mostly narrative, not signal.
  • Andy Reid's Chiefs have historically been mediocre in preseason play, and if Tampa Bay is the home team the base rate alone puts Kansas City in the low-to-mid 40s.
  • My independent estimate (~41%) sits above the market's 31.5%; the gap plausibly reflects bettors pricing in expected starter rest for Kansas City or simply thin liquidity ($29k volume) rather than hard information, so I shade toward but do not fully adopt the market.

What would change it: Confirmed reports that the Chiefs will sit their top depth-chart units while the Buccaneers play theirs would push my estimate toward or below the market price.

Settlement source

+9.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: NFL preseason games are near coin flips, with road teams winning roughly 44-46% of the time given modest home-field edge.

Chosen by hand.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

  1. NOsettled 23 Aug 2026, 03:23 UTC · recorded 23 Aug 2026, 03:23 UTC · entered by handsettlement

  2. NOsettled 23 Aug 2026, 03:25 UTC · recorded 5 Oct 2026, 01:23 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

    Corrected against Polymarket's settlement. It was recorded as settled on 23 Aug 2026 at 03:23 UTC, before Polymarket settled it on 23 Aug 2026 at 03:25 UTC.

Polymarket prices this at 36.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $6,411 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0027 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.