Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 16 months apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Sep 13, 26
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information…
Settles Jan 1, 28
If Ulf Kristersson becomes Prime Minister of Sweden as a result of government formation following the 2026 Swedish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on this one. Both price it near 21%, so there is no cross venue disagreement to trade and no basis to speak of.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $15,339 on the busier venue. It closes in 4 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.