Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
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Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-04T03:55:26.968Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
99.4%bid 99.3% / ask 99.5%24h volume $558K · liquidity $126Kas of 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 63.7%against a market price of 73.5% at the timeYES
Logged 1 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC · Brier 0.1314
- The base rate from the last five Ohio Senate elections gives Democrats a 40% historical win rate in the state.
- The most recent poll, completed October 31, 2026 — three days before the election — shows the Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown at 50.2% versus Republican Jon Husted at 49.8%, a marginal lead within any plausible margin of error.
- The election has not yet occurred and is scheduled for November 3, 2026, leaving roughly two days for late shifts, turnout effects, and polling error; a sub-1-point polling lead this close is consistent with either outcome.
- Signal: the late poll is the only current, case-specific datapoint and slightly favors Brown. Narrative: candidate identities and incumbency-style name recognition (Brown as a former senator, Husted as a sitting senator) are not independently quantified here.
What would change it: A late-breaking shift of roughly 2+ points toward Husted in final polling or a systematic polling error favoring Brown would move the estimate to or below 50%.
Settlement sourcet-0293
Polymarket prices this at 99.4%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $557,705 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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