Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Logged 1 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC · Brier 0.1314

• The base rate from the last five Ohio Senate elections gives Democrats a 40% historical win rate in the state.
• The most recent poll, completed October 31, 2026 — three days before the election — shows the Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown at 50.2% versus Republican Jon Husted at 49.8%, a marginal lead within any plausible margin of error.
• The election has not yet occurred and is scheduled for November 3, 2026, leaving roughly two days for late shifts, turnout effects, and polling error; a sub-1-point polling lead this close is consistent with either outcome.
• Signal: the late poll is the only current, case-specific datapoint and slightly favors Brown. Narrative: candidate identities and incumbency-style name recognition (Brown as a former senator, Husted as a sitting senator) are not independently quantified here.

What would change it: A late-breaking shift of roughly 2+ points toward Husted in final polling or a systematic polling error favoring Brown would move the estimate to or below 50%.

-9.8 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Democratic Senate nominees won two of the five Ohio Senate elections held from 2012 through 2024.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v2), not by hand.

Formed blind at 54.0%, without sight of the price; published at 63.7%, the market’s 73.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.