Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 2 years apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Dec 31, 26
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Karoline Leavitt by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market. In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Karoline Leavitt, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will…
Settles Jan 21, 29
If the first new person to become White House Press Secretary after Issuance is Anna Kelly, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Kalshi prices this at 22% while Polymarket has it at 20%, a gap of 2.0 points on the same question. Whether that gap is real depends entirely on whether the two settle on the same terms.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $6,780 on the busier venue.
Related markets
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.