Will Spirit Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingContract settles 2 Nov 2026Last checked 28 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC

Data may be delayed. These prices have not refreshed recently, so treat them as a last known reading rather than a current quote.

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-28T18:30:27.169Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

8.1%bid 5.0% / ask 11.2%24h volume $10K · liquidity $6Kas of 28 Oct, 18:30 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

23.0%against a market price of 29.0% at the timeOpen
Logged 23 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
- Spirit is structurally eligible and listed as an invited top-tier team, so this is a genuine contender market rather than a longshot/qualifier market.
- The announced lineup includes donk and sh1ro with magixx/zont1x/tN1R, which reads as an intact high-ceiling roster; that is positive signal but only structural, not current-form proof.
- The event is imminent and compact (Oct 24–31), so resolution risk from postponement/cancellation is low and the main uncertainty is tournament performance over the next week.
- The opener is versus BetBoom in Swiss; that is not a title-deciding signal by itself because Swiss allows recovery, though a weak start would materially lower title odds.
- The key unknowns are season record, recent margin, first-game rust, injuries/suspensions, and sportsbook prices; absence of these keeps the adjustment from the base rate modest and confidence low.
What would change it: Confirmed lineup unavailability or an 0–2/elimination Swiss start would sharply reduce this estimate.
t-0269

Polymarket prices this at 8.1%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $9,943 on the busier venue. It closes in 3 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

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