Will SG Sacavenense vs. Real SC end in a draw?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 24.0%against a market price of 98.0% at the timeNO
Logged 28 Aug 2026, 03:58 UTC · Brier 0.0576
- Outside view dominates here: no legitimate soccer match between two competitive senior sides has a draw probability anywhere near 98%; even heavily mismatch-paired or low-scoring leagues rarely exceed ~30% draws.
- Inside view offers little to push off base rate: both clubs are mid-table Portuguese lower-division sides with typical scoring rates, so a modest adjustment toward ~24% reflects league draw tendencies without inventing signal.
- The 98% market price is wildly inconsistent with any real-world base rate and almost certainly reflects thin liquidity, a mispriced/misread contract, or noise trading on $11.9k volume rather than genuine information; I treat it as a pricing anomaly, not evidence.
- Time decay is irrelevant to the outcome distribution, but the 3-day window means no meaningful new information (weather, lineups) is likely to justify a dramatic repricing.
What would change it: Credible evidence that the fixture is an exhibition, a fixed match, or that one/both clubs are fielding youth sides in a way known to suppress decisive results would substantially raise the draw probability.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 99%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $410 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
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