Will SC Lourel vs. SC Angrense end in a draw?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 27.0%against a market price of 97.2% at the timeNO
Logged 28 Aug 2026, 03:48 UTC · Brier 0.0729
- Outside view: with no evidence of extraordinary circumstances, a draw between two comparable lower-league sides is a ~1-in-4 event; there is no public signal (that I can verify) of a mutual-qualification scenario that would justify near-certainty.
- Inside view: SC Lourel and SC Angrense are small Portuguese clubs with thin data; absent team-news edges, small adjustments for evenly matched lower-tier teams push the draw estimate slightly above the global average, not above ~30%.
- Signal vs. narrative: the 97.2% market price is almost certainly a microstructure artifact — $8.5k daily volume on an obscure fixture means a handful of trades (or a resolution-clause quirk, e.g., cancellation resolving YES) can pin the price near 1; the divergence has a plausible cause and is not trustworthy information about the true draw probability.
What would change it: Credible reporting that a draw guarantees both clubs advancement or avoids relegation (a final-round mutual-benefit scenario) would push my estimate toward 0.45–0.60.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 98%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $565 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
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