Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

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Settled, no longer listedContract settles 3 Nov 2026Last checked 3 Nov 2026, 23:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-03T23:55:27.055Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

55.5%bid 53.0% / ask 58.0%24h volume $3.6M · liquidity $75Kas of 3 Nov, 23:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

13.8%against a market price of 22.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 31 Oct 2026, 14:01 UTC
- The YES outcome requires Republicans to lose all seven seats; it is an intersection, so its probability is bounded by the least likely Democratic win and pulled down by any race where the Republican still leads.
- Polling signal favors Democrats in six of seven races: Peltola +2 in Alaska, Hamilton +3.5 in Kansas, Jackson +4 in Maine, El-Sayed +7 in Michigan, Brown +5 in Ohio, Talarico +4.2 in Texas — consistent with a Democratic-leaning national environment, which is the real driver of a sweep scenario.
- The weakest link is Iowa: the latest poll has Republican Hinson ahead 47-46 and CBS classifies both Iowa and Kansas as Republican-leaning, so the joint event likely hinges on a race that is at best a coin flip for Democrats.
- Because a shared national environment correlates these races, the sweep probability is higher than the naive product of seven independent ~50% events (~1%), but the Iowa deficit and the red-state fundamentals of Alaska, Kansas, and Texas keep it in the low single digits with 3 days to the election.
- Single polls per race are anchors, not distributions; several of these leads are within typical polling error, which cuts against YES since YES needs every lead to hold simultaneously.
What would change it: A Republican victory in any one of the seven states — most plausibly Iowa, where Hinson already leads — resolves the market NO.
t-0290

Polymarket prices this at 55.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $3,649,283 on the busier venue.

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