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Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

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Settled, no longer listedContract settles 3 Nov 2026Last checked 3 Nov 2026, 23:55 UTC
PM

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-03T23:55:27.055Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

55.5%bid 53.0% / ask 58.0%24h volume $3.6M · liquidity $75Kas of 3 Nov, 23:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

13.8%against a market price of 22.5% at the timeOpen

Logged 31 Oct 2026, 14:01 UTC

  • The YES outcome requires Republicans to lose all seven seats; it is an intersection, so its probability is bounded by the least likely Democratic win and pulled down by any race where the Republican still leads.
  • Polling signal favors Democrats in six of seven races: Peltola +2 in Alaska, Hamilton +3.5 in Kansas, Jackson +4 in Maine, El-Sayed +7 in Michigan, Brown +5 in Ohio, Talarico +4.2 in Texas — consistent with a Democratic-leaning national environment, which is the real driver of a sweep scenario.
  • The weakest link is Iowa: the latest poll has Republican Hinson ahead 47-46 and CBS classifies both Iowa and Kansas as Republican-leaning, so the joint event likely hinges on a race that is at best a coin flip for Democrats.
  • Because a shared national environment correlates these races, the sweep probability is higher than the naive product of seven independent ~50% events (~1%), but the Iowa deficit and the red-state fundamentals of Alaska, Kansas, and Texas keep it in the low single digits with 3 days to the election.
  • Single polls per race are anchors, not distributions; several of these leads are within typical polling error, which cuts against YES since YES needs every lead to hold simultaneously.

What would change it: A Republican victory in any one of the seven states — most plausibly Iowa, where Hinson already leads — resolves the market NO.

-8.8 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: No retrieved historical rate exists for this exact class; from general Senate history, one party being swept out of all of seven named competitive seats in a single cycle is rare, on the order of a few percent per cycle, because the joint event requires the weakest-link race to flip too.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v2), not by hand.

Formed blind at 5.0%, without sight of the price; published at 13.8%, the market’s 22.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f2, f7, f3) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.

What this call was reading

  • The seven Senate general elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, and the retrieved sources report no result for any of them as of October 31, 2026.[2] as of 2026-10-31 · cbsnews.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The Republican candidates identified in the retrieved race coverage are Dan Sullivan in Alaska, Ashley Hinson in Iowa, Roger Marshall in Kansas, Susan Collins in Maine, Mike Rogers in Michigan, Jon Husted in Ohio, and Ken Paxton in Texas.[1][8] as of 2026-10-30 · nbcnews.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The Democratic candidates identified in the retrieved race coverage are Mary Peltola in Alaska, Josh Turek in Iowa, Adam Hamilton in Kansas, Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and James Talarico in Texas.[1][8] as of 2026-10-30 · nbcnews.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The latest poll listed for Alaska was Data for Progress’s October 8–16 survey, with Mary Peltola at 51% and Dan Sullivan at 49% among likely voters.[8] as of 2026-10-16 · demlist.com
  • The latest poll listed for Kansas was Emerson College/Nexstar’s October 28 survey, with Adam Hamilton at 48.7% and Roger Marshall at 45.2%.[1] as of 2026-10-28 · nbcnews.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The latest poll listed for Maine was CNN/SSRS’s October 26 survey, with Troy Jackson at 49% and Susan Collins at 45%.[1] as of 2026-10-26 · nbcnews.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The latest poll listed for Michigan was CBS Detroit/Mitchell Research & Communications’ October 27 survey, with Abdul El-Sayed at 51% and Mike Rogers at 44%.[1] as of 2026-10-27 · nbcnews.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The latest Ohio poll reported in the retrieved results was Fox News’s October 15–19 survey, with Sherrod Brown at 52% and Jon Husted at 47%.[8] as of 2026-10-19 · demlist.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The latest Texas poll listed was ActiVote’s October 28 survey, with James Talarico at 52.1% and Ken Paxton at 47.9%.[1] as of 2026-10-28 · nbcnews.com · within 14 days of this call
  • The latest poll listed for Iowa was InsiderAdvantage’s October 21–22 survey, with Ashley Hinson at 47% and Josh Turek at 46% among likely voters.[8] as of 2026-10-22 · demlist.com · within 14 days of this call
  • CBS News classified Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas as toss-up Senate races, and Iowa and Kansas as Republican-leaning races.[2] as of 2026-10-31 · cbsnews.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 55.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $3,649,283 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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