Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-08-23?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 25.0%against a market price of 21.5% at the timeNO
Logged 18 Aug 2026, 02:39 UTC · Brier 0.0625
- No opponent or venue is specified, so the dominant factor is the reference class: Racing have been a promotion-playoff-caliber Segunda side recently, which pulls a generic single-match win probability toward the high end of the ~25–35% band, absent contrary information.
- The date (late August) coincides with the opening rounds of the Spanish season, where form signals are weakest and outcomes are noisier, arguing for regressing toward the base rate rather than trusting narrative adjustments.
- The market's 21.5% on thin volume ($3.9k) likely embeds information I lack — probably an away fixture or a strong opponent (possibly a newly relegated La Liga side) — so I shade my estimate down toward the market rather than asserting the full base rate, but I don't fully converge given the low liquidity and my prior that Racing are above league average.
What would change it: Confirmation of the fixture details (opponent strength and home/away) — e.g., if Racing are at home to a relegation candidate, my estimate would rise toward 40%; if away to a promotion favorite, it would fall toward 18%.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 27%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $47,693 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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