Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-08-29?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 38.0%against a market price of 31.5% at the timeYES
Logged 25 Aug 2026, 19:23 UTC · Brier 0.3844
- I cannot verify the opponent, venue, or either team's form for this fixture from my own knowledge, so my estimate leans heavily on the reference class of an established upper-midtable-to-top-six PL side: a win probability in the high-30s to mid-40s percent is the reasonable prior for a randomly selected league match.
- The market-implied 31.5% embeds information I lack (likely an away fixture or a match against a title contender, since a ~25% draw probability would leave the opponent near 43%); it is rational to update substantially toward that signal rather than hold a naive prior, which pulls my estimate down from ~45% to the high 30s.
- I retain a modest premium above the market price because single-match soccer markets with moderate volume ($112k) can carry slight favorite-longshot-style mispricing and because Newcastle's squad quality has generally been underrated early in seasons; the divergence is plausibly explained by my ignorance of the specific opponent rather than genuine market error.
- Time-decay is minimal (4 days to close), so injury/team-news risk is small but nonzero; late lineup news is the main residual uncertainty.
What would change it: Confirmation that the fixture is away to a title contender (or that key Newcastle attackers are injured) would push my estimate down toward or below 30%; confirmation of a home match against a weaker side would push it above 45%.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 31%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $245,253 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
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