Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?

Thesis

• The clearest signal is the late polling sequence: Sullivan leads Shaheen by 2, 5, and 6 points across three August polls, with the latest fielded Aug. 28-31 giving her 33%-27% [f3][f4][f5].
• Sullivan's roughly $3.6M-to-$2.4M fundraising advantage and rise from 8% in Dec/Jan to front-runner status are positive signal, though the old poll is mostly stale [f6][f8].
• Shaheen has meaningful counter-signal: Hassan, Kelly, Lynch, and most labor unions suggest strong in-state institutional support that can matter in a low-turnout primary [f10].
• Key risks keep this below two-thirds: high undecideds in UNH, Beriont's late rise and Howard's endorsement could reorder late deciders, and attacks over out-of-state/AIPAC-linked money are salient in NH [f4][f7][f11][f14].
• With only three days to the Sept. 8 primary, there is little time for fundamentals to change, but late-breaking negative coverage or turnout effects can still move a plurality race [f1].

Base rate

In crowded open-seat U.S. House primaries, the final-week polling leader with a money edge wins more often than not, but leads inside or near the margin with many undecideds are far from safe.

What would prove this wrong

A final weekend poll or late decider break showing Shaheen ahead by several points, or Beriont surging into the high teens, would make Sullivan clearly less likely than not to win.

Settlement

Resolved NO on 11 Sept 2026 · settlement source

What this call was reading

• A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll conducted August 17-18, 2026 showed Maura Sullivan leading Stefany Shaheen 26% to 24%, a statistical dead heat within the 5.2-point margin of error. as of 2026-08-20 · anselm.edu · within 90 days of this call
• A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released August 26, 2026 showed Sullivan and Shaheen statistically tied at 24% and 19% respectively, with Carleigh Beriont at 11%, Heath Howard at 10%, and 29% undecided. as of 2026-08-26 · scholars.unh.edu · within 90 days of this call
• A Tavern Research poll conducted August 28-31, 2026 showed Sullivan leading Shaheen 33% to 27%, with Beriont at 12%, Urrutia at 4%, and Howard at 2%. as of 2026-08-31 · oddsshopper.com · within 90 days of this call
• Sullivan led Shaheen by 8 points overall in December/January UNH data with Shaheen at 33% and Sullivan at 8%, meaning Sullivan gained substantial ground over the course of 2026. as of 2026-01-22 · bostonglobe.com
• Maura Sullivan has raised approximately $3.6 million for her campaign, while Stefany Shaheen has raised approximately $2.4 million, as reported in early September 2026. as of 2026-09-04 · nhpr.org · within 90 days of this call
• Shaheen has been endorsed by Senator Maggie Hassan (August 26, 2026) and Senator Mark Kelly (August 11, 2026), along with former Governor John Lynch and most of the state's labor unions. as of 2026-08-26 · oddsshopper.com · within 90 days of this call
• State Rep. Heath Howard suspended his campaign and endorsed progressive candidate Carleigh Beriont after the August 20, 2026 Saint Anselm poll was released. as of 2026-08-24 · bostonglobe.com · within 90 days of this call
• Sullivan's campaign has faced attacks over receiving a large share of donations from outside New Hampshire, including AIPAC-linked donors, with Shaheen stating in a debate that Sullivan raised more than 90% of her campaign money from out of state. as of 2026-09-04 · nhpr.org · within 90 days of this call
• Progressive candidate Carleigh Beriont gained momentum in the final weeks before the primary, rising from 3% in June to 12% in the August 20 Saint Anselm poll and 11% in the August 26 UNH poll. as of 2026-08-30 · bostonglobe.com · within 90 days of this call
• Maura Sullivan is one of nine candidates running in the Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, scheduled for September 8, 2026. as of 2026-08-18 · news.ballotpedia.org · within 90 days of this call