Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10?

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTCLast checked 10 Oct 2026, 16:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-10T16:25:26.790Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

56.5%bid 56.0% / ask 57.0%24h volume $170K · liquidity $2.1Mas of 10 Oct, 16:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

49.8%against a market price of 57.5% at the timeNO
Logged 6 Oct 2026, 13:01 UTC · Brier 0.2475
- Manchester United plays at home at Old Trafford, which carries the standard Premier League home edge that anchors the estimate near the 46% home-win base rate.
- Both clubs are in poor early-season form — United 1W-2D-2L and Tottenham 0W-2D-3L after five matches — so neither side's form justifies moving far from the base rate; Tottenham's winless record slightly favors United.
- Head-to-head slightly disfavors United: only 1 win in the last 5 league meetings with Tottenham (2 draws, 2 losses), a modest negative adjustment.
- United's injury list is heavy and includes high-leverage names (Mainoo, de Ligt, Rashford, Mazraoui, Diallo), a genuine negative signal rather than narrative.
- Tottenham's absences (van de Ven, Porro, Simons, Mudryk, Odobert, van Hecke) are comparably damaging, roughly canceling the United injury penalty and keeping the estimate close to a slight downward adjustment from base rate.
- Resolution is 90 minutes plus stoppage only, so the draw outcome (base rate ~25%) counts as No, which is already embedded in the home-win base rate.
What would change it: Confirmed starting XIs on match day showing several of United's listed absentees (e.g., Mainoo, de Ligt) fit to start while Tottenham's remain out would push this back toward 48-50%.
Settlement sourcet-0223

Polymarket prices this at 56.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $170,489 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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