Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

TradingContract settles 1 Jul 2027Last checked 29 Sept 2026, 17:45 UTC

Data may be delayed. These prices have not refreshed recently, so treat them as a last known reading rather than a current quote.

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-29T17:45:27.452Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

74.5%bid 74.0% / ask 75.0%24h volume $54K · liquidity $80Kas of 29 Sept, 17:45 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:00:42.550Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

73.5%bid 72.0% / ask 75.0%24h volume –as of 29 Oct, 20:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 6 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Jul 1, 27

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information…

Settles Jan 1, 28

If Magdalena Andersson becomes Prime Minister of Sweden as a result of government formation following the 2026 Swedish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

57.0%against a market price of 79.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 5 Sept 2026, 04:29 UTC
- Every recent poll shows the Social Democrat-led opposition ahead: Novus 50.3-47.7, Indikator 51.3-46.6, Demoskop 50.6-46.9, and PolitPro's aggregate projects the Tidö alliance at only ~45.8% of seats — signal, since these are multiple independent pollsters converging.
- The trend is narrowing: the opposition lead fell from 9.6 points in May to 2.6 points in early September, and in 2022 Swedish polls overestimated the red-green side, which then lost — this is the main signal cutting against a naive read of the topline numbers.
- If the opposition wins a majority, Andersson is the clear PM candidate as leader of the largest party, with prior incumbency experience; the main conditional risk is a centrist S-MP-C-KD arrangement, but that still plausibly installs Andersson as PM.
- Christian Democratic threats to vote against Andersson matter little if the red-green bloc plus Centre hold a majority without KD, and a Social Democrat insider predicts the pledge won't hold post-election — mostly narrative rather than binding signal.
- Residual uncertainty includes election-day polling error, Centre Party ambiguity in a non-majority scenario, and the ~9 months of government formation allowed before June 30, 2027, which gives Andersson multiple paths even after a messy result.
What would change it: Final pre-election polls in the last days before September 13 showing the Tidö bloc tied with or ahead of the opposition, which given the narrowing trend would drop this probability well below 40%.
t-0165

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $53,661 on the busier venue.

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