Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 57.0%against a market price of 79.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 5 Sept 2026, 04:29 UTC
- Every recent poll shows the Social Democrat-led opposition ahead: Novus 50.3-47.7 (f2), Indikator 51.3-46.6 (f3), Demoskop 50.6-46.9 (f4), and PolitPro's aggregate projects the Tidö alliance at only ~45.8% of seats (f7) — signal, since these are multiple independent pollsters converging.
- The trend is narrowing: the opposition lead fell from 9.6 points in May to 2.6 points in early September (f2, f5), and in 2022 Swedish polls overestimated the red-green side, which then lost (f17, f18) — this is the main signal cutting against a naive read of the topline numbers.
- If the opposition wins a majority, Andersson is the clear PM candidate as leader of the largest party (f11, f7), with prior incumbency experience (f17); the main conditional risk is a centrist S-MP-C-KD arrangement (f12), but that still plausibly installs Andersson as PM.
- Christian Democratic threats to vote against Andersson (f13, f14) matter little if the red-green bloc plus Centre hold a majority without KD, and a Social Democrat insider predicts the pledge won't hold post-election (f15) — mostly narrative rather than binding signal.
- Residual uncertainty includes election-day polling error, Centre Party ambiguity in a non-majority scenario, and the ~9 months of government formation allowed before June 30, 2027, which gives Andersson multiple paths even after a messy result.
What would change it: Final pre-election polls in the last days before September 13 showing the Tidö bloc tied with or ahead of the opposition, which given the narrowing trend would drop this probability well below 40%.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 79%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $33,530 on the busier venue. It closes in 4 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
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