Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

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TradingContract settles 1 Jul 2027Last checked 29 Sept 2026, 17:45 UTC

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Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-29T17:45:27.452Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

74.5%bid 74.0% / ask 75.0%24h volume $54K · liquidity $80Kas of 29 Sept, 17:45 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

57.0%against a market price of 79.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 5 Sept 2026, 04:29 UTC
- Every recent poll shows the Social Democrat-led opposition ahead: Novus 50.3-47.7, Indikator 51.3-46.6, Demoskop 50.6-46.9, and PolitPro's aggregate projects the Tidö alliance at only ~45.8% of seats — signal, since these are multiple independent pollsters converging.
- The trend is narrowing: the opposition lead fell from 9.6 points in May to 2.6 points in early September, and in 2022 Swedish polls overestimated the red-green side, which then lost — this is the main signal cutting against a naive read of the topline numbers.
- If the opposition wins a majority, Andersson is the clear PM candidate as leader of the largest party, with prior incumbency experience; the main conditional risk is a centrist S-MP-C-KD arrangement, but that still plausibly installs Andersson as PM.
- Christian Democratic threats to vote against Andersson matter little if the red-green bloc plus Centre hold a majority without KD, and a Social Democrat insider predicts the pledge won't hold post-election — mostly narrative rather than binding signal.
- Residual uncertainty includes election-day polling error, Centre Party ambiguity in a non-majority scenario, and the ~9 months of government formation allowed before June 30, 2027, which gives Andersson multiple paths even after a messy result.
What would change it: Final pre-election polls in the last days before September 13 showing the Tidö bloc tied with or ahead of the opposition, which given the narrowing trend would drop this probability well below 40%.
t-0165

Polymarket prices this at 74.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $53,661 on the busier venue.

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