Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

Settled, no longer listedContract settles 27 Oct 2026Last checked 26 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-26T15:00:32.626Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

0.5%bid 0.5% / ask 0.6%24h volume $1.1M · liquidity $484Kas of 26 Oct, 15:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-26T22:00:35.949Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

no two-sided marketnobody is quoting both sides, so there is no price to show24h volume $4.2Mas of 26 Oct, 22:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 2 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Oct 27, 26

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Settles Jan 1, 27

If Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $4,209,140 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what both venues said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.