Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

SettledEvent date Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTCContract settles 13 Sept 2026Last checked 6 Sept 2026, 12:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-06T12:55:28.682Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

3.3%bid 3.0% / ask 3.5%24h volume $31K · liquidity $60Kas of 6 Sept, 12:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-06T18:00:34.730Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

no two-sided marketnobody is quoting both sides, so there is no price to show24h volume $71K · liquidity –as of 6 Sept, 18:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView this market's series on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

Settles Sep 13, 26

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix, scheduled for Sep 6, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Sep 13, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the public…

Settles Sep 6, 26

If Lando Norris finishes in exactly first in the main race originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at the 2026 Italian Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

30.0%against a market price of 33.5% at the timeNO
Logged 3 Sept 2026, 03:26 UTC · Brier 0.0900
- Structural cap: Norris shares a top car with Piastri, so even if McLaren is again the benchmark in 2026 his per-race win probability is roughly halved by his teammate before accounting for rivals — a prior near the high-20s rather than 40%+.
- Monza is a low-downforce, power/drag-sensitive track where McLaren's 2025 edge (medium/high-downforce load and tire thermal management) was muted and Verstappen/Red Bull won; Ferrari's home race and slipstream qualifying add variance, so I tilt slightly below a generic round.
- I lack actual 2026 season results and the 2026 PU/chassis reset could have reordered the field, so I partially defer to the 33.5% market (participants have ~15 rounds of 2026 data I don't); the modest gap to my 30% is plausibly real form information, though $164 24h volume is thin and makes the price a noisy signal rather than a sharp one.
What would change it: Monza FP/qualifying showing Norris off the front row, McLaren lacking straight-line speed, or Piastri/a rival clearly faster — any of which would collapse this toward the low teens or single digits.
Settlement sourcet-0163

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $71,281 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what both venues said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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