Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
A confirmed cross-venue pair. Only one side is priced right now.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
Settles Sep 13, 26
This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix, scheduled for Sep 6, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Sep 13, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the public…
Settles Sep 6, 26
If Andrea Kimi Antonelli finishes in exactly first in the main race originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at the 2026 Italian Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Kalshi prices this at 99% while Polymarket has it at 4%, a gap of 95.1 points on the same question. A gap that wide usually means the two contracts are not asking quite the same thing, so the settlement terms below are the first thing to check.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $708,355 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what both venues said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.