Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 2 months apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Oct 31, 26
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Settles Jan 1, 27
If Khvicha Kvaratskhelia wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on this one. Both price it near 3%, so there is no cross venue disagreement to trade and no basis to speak of.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $31,575 on the busier venue. It closes in about 52 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.