Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledContract settles 26 Aug 2026Last checked 26 Aug 2026, 03:55 UTC

PM2.0%bid 0.5% / ask 3.5%24h volume $3K · liquidity $2Kas of 26 Aug, 03:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

5.0%against a market price of 23.0% at the timeNO
Logged 20 Aug 2026, 22:57 UTC · Brier 0.0025
- The reference class is single-day event risk: even during active Iran-Israel/US conflict, days on which Iran actually strikes an Arab state are rare, so a 5-day-out, single-day window mechanically caps the probability low absent a specific announced casus belli.
- Elevated regional tension (which the market's existence and 23% price imply) is real signal — Iran did target Qatar in June 2025 as retaliation for US strikes, establishing that an active retaliation cycle meaningfully raises the odds — but Iran still strongly prefers striking Israel or symbolic/de-escalatory targets over Arab states.
- The 23% market price likely overstates the true odds: with only $286 in 24h volume the price is thin and noise-dominated, and ambiguity in what counts as 'targeting' (e.g., missiles transiting Arab airspace) may inflate YES bids; the divergence has a plausible liquidity/resolution-ambiguity cause.
- Time-decay matters: with 5 days remaining and no public indication of an imminent Iranian operation against an Arab state, each quiet day pushes the estimate down toward the base rate.
What would change it: A public Iranian threat, US/Israeli strike on Iran, or Gulf-state intelligence warning of imminent Iranian attack in the next 1-2 days would sharply raise my estimate.
Settlement source

Context

Polymarket prices this at 2%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $2,588 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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