Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledContract settles 24 Aug 2026Last checked 24 Aug 2026, 03:55 UTC

PM2.3%bid 0.8% / ask 3.8%24h volume $1K · liquidity $16Kas of 24 Aug, 03:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

3.5%against a market price of 9.5% at the timeNO
Logged 20 Aug 2026, 23:01 UTC · Brier 0.0012
- The reference class is a confirmed Iranian military strike, missile or drone attack against sovereign Arab-state territory, for which the unconditional specific-day base rate is extremely low.
- No case-specific evidence is provided of a named Iranian threat, visible force mobilization, airspace closure, evacuation, or imminent-retaliation signal; generalized regional hostility and proxy activity are mostly narrative rather than strong signal.
- The three-day horizon leaves little time for an attack to be organized, although a preplanned strike could occur without warning; the 9.5% market price is above my independent estimate, and the divergence may reflect broader resolution wording or informed escalation concerns, but the small resting book limits its evidentiary weight.
What would change it: A credible official warning or verified evidence that Iran is preparing to strike a named Arab country before August 24 would sharply raise the estimate.
Settlement source

Context

Polymarket prices this at 2%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $1,283 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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