Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-10?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTCLast checked 10 Oct 2026, 16:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-10T16:25:26.790Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

87.5%bid 87.0% / ask 88.0%24h volume $495K · liquidity $555Kas of 10 Oct, 16:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

85.8%against a market price of 91.5% at the timeYES
Logged 5 Oct 2026, 13:02 UTC · Brier 0.0203
- Head-to-head home base rate is strongly favorable: 19 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses in 23 prior home meetings, so the main risk to YES is a draw, not a loss.
- Current form supports the favorite: Barcelona is 7-0-0 in La Liga with a 3-1 win in its latest match, while Getafe sits at 2-2-3 — a genuine quality/form gap, not just narrative.
- The match is at Spotify Camp Nou, confirming the home-favorite setup assumed by the base rate.
- Barcelona's injury list (de Jong, Christensen, Garcia, Bardghji, Bisiwu) is a modest negative signal for squad depth, partially offset by Raphinha being cleared; Getafe also has four injuries, so the injury differential is roughly neutral to mildly negative.
- I trim the raw 83% base rate slightly toward ~80% because one head-to-head series is an anchor rather than a distribution, small samples overstate, and the draw (present in 4 of 23 meetings) remains the live failure mode.
What would change it: A late report that multiple Barcelona starters (e.g., Raphinha plus another key attacker) are ruled out, or confirmation the match will not be played at Camp Nou, would push the estimate down several points.
Settlement sourcet-0220

Polymarket prices this at 87.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $495,176 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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