Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

TradingContract settles 1 Apr 2027Last checked 8 Oct 2026, 20:10 UTC

Data may be delayed. These prices have not refreshed recently, so treat them as a last known reading rather than a current quote.

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-08T20:10:29.001Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

0.5%bid 0.5% / ask 0.6%24h volume $1.0M · liquidity $808Kas of 8 Oct, 20:10 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-09T09:00:38.334Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

no two-sided marketnobody is quoting both sides, so there is no price to show24h volume $657Kas of 9 Oct, 09:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 3 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Apr 1, 27

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the…

Settles Jan 1, 27

If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $1,029,318 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.