Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-06?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 43.0%against a market price of 18.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 1 Sept 2026, 02:35 UTC
- Absent the opponent, venue, injuries, and current form, the appropriate estimate remains close to Chelsea’s broad single-match base rate rather than a highly confident fixture-specific number.
- Chelsea’s squad quality supports an above-average win probability, but the three-way soccer outcome and inclusion of only regulation time materially cap it.
- The market’s 18.5% is far below this generic estimate; the divergence plausibly reflects omitted fixture context such as a very difficult away opponent, although the modest $9,206 volume also permits substantial illiquidity or stale pricing.
What would change it: Confirmation that Chelsea is away to an elite opponent or will miss several key starters would most sharply reduce the estimate.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 20%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $532,939 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.