Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 10 months apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Dec 31, 26
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December…
Settles Oct 27, 27
If Avigdor Lieberman becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Kalshi prices this at 8% while Polymarket has it at 5%, a gap of 2.8 points on the same question. Whether that gap is real depends entirely on whether the two settle on the same terms.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $1,358 on the busier venue.
Related markets
- Israel military action against Lebanon on September 10?
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.