Will Austria win on 2026-09-24?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Thu, 24 Sept 2026, 18:45 UTCLast checked 24 Sept 2026, 18:40 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-24T18:40:28.667Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

67.5%bid 67.0% / ask 68.0%24h volume $91K · liquidity $210Kas of 24 Sept, 18:40 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

60.0%against a market price of 68.5% at the timeYES
Logged 22 Sept 2026, 04:12 UTC · Brier 0.1600
- Consensus line has Austria as a 1.5-goal favorite with a 2.5 total, which in international football typically maps to a win probability around 55-60% rather than the generic 45% home-win base rate.
- Austria is materially depleted: Alaba not selected, Sabitzer absent, and Laimer, Grillitsch, Ljubicic, Baumgartner, Florucz, and Svoboda all unavailable — a downgrade from what the line may fully reflect, especially in attack and midfield depth.
- Israel is also missing three defenders (Blorian, Rotman, Lemkin), which partly offsets Austria's absences and supports Austria's favoritism holding.
- Recent form signal is mixed and weak: Austria lost 0-3 to Spain (elite opposition), Israel beat Albania 1-0; neither says much about this matchup, so I treat it as narrative more than signal.
- Both sides open their Nations League campaign here, so no in-group form table exists to sharpen the read; the draw remains a live ~25% outcome, which caps how high a win-only market can go.
What would change it: Late team news showing Austria's starting XI is even more weakened (e.g., Arnautovic or Gregoritsch out) or a confirmed venue change away from Austria would push my estimate down toward the 45% base rate.
Settlement sourcet-0214

Context

Polymarket prices this at 67.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $90,719 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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