Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 78.0%against a market price of 83.5% at the timeYES
Logged 17 Aug 2026, 04:39 UTC · Brier 0.0484
- The market's 83.5% pricing implies this is a favorable fixture (likely home vs. a weaker or newly promoted side early in the 2026–27 season), which is consistent with Arsenal's recent profile as a top-two PL contender; my independent estimate for such a fixture profile is 75–82%.
- Signal vs. narrative: the only hard signal available is the market-implied favorite status itself; I lack verified information on opponent identity, injuries, transfers, or early-season form, so I cannot justify diverging far from the heavy-favorite reference class but should shade down for unknown-specifics uncertainty.
- Five days to close leaves modest time for injury or rotation news (midweek cup/European fixtures could produce knocks), which slightly widens the error distribution and argues against pricing at the top of the range; my 0.78 vs. market 0.835 divergence is plausibly explained by the market having fixture-specific information I lack rather than true mispricing.
What would change it: Confirmation that the opponent is a top-six side or news of multiple Arsenal first-team injuries would push this meaningfully below my estimate.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 82%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $733,263 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
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