UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTCContract settles 25 Oct 2026Last checked 24 Oct 2026, 13:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-24T13:55:28.631Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

40.5%bid 40.0% / ask 41.0%24h volume $279K · liquidity $165Kas of 24 Oct, 13:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

37.3%against a market price of 40.5% at the timeNO
Logged 19 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC · Brier 0.1388
- Yan won the first meeting by unanimous decision in December 2025 and enters as champion, which is the single strongest signal; rematch losers repeat their loss more often than not.
- Merab is a former champion with a comparable record (21-5 vs 20-5), so this is a high-level competitive rematch rather than a fluke-driven mismatch, keeping his win probability well above a longshot.
- Both fighters are coming off a ~10-month layoff with no 2026 fights before this one, so ring rust and uncertainty apply roughly symmetrically and slightly widen the distribution rather than favor either side.
- A small share of outcomes (no contests ~1.4% in the division, plus rare draws or postponements) resolve 50-50 rather than YES, trimming the effective YES probability slightly below Merab's raw win chance.
- No injury or availability information could be established, so no adjustment is made for that; this is a genuine information gap close to fight night.
What would change it: Credible news of an injury, bad weight cut, or decline for either fighter in fight week, or evidence that Yan's UFC 323 win was fluky (e.g., injury to Merab mid-fight), would move the estimate materially.
Settlement sourcet-0260

Polymarket prices this at 40.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $279,211 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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