Sri Lanka vs India match: India wins
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has no two-sided book right now, so there is no price to show. The contract is still listed; nobody is quoting both sides of it.
Crossbook forecast
- 70.0%against a market price of 73.0% at the timeNO
Logged 23 Aug 2026, 14:57 UTC · Brier 0.4900
- Reference class: India has dominated this head-to-head for two decades, winning the large majority of Tests against Sri Lanka home and away; India currently fields a deeper batting and pace/spin attack in virtually all conditions.
- Key structural adjustment: this market resolves YES only on an India win, so Test cricket's draw risk (rain, dead pitches, weather-shortened games — the match starts today and runs up to 5 days, fitting the close date) must be netted out of India's raw superiority; ~10–15% draw probability is the main tax on YES.
- Venue is unspecified in the contract; if played in Sri Lanka, home conditions (turning tracks) narrow the gap somewhat, which argues against pushing above the mid-70s; the market's 73% is close to my independent 70%, and the small gap plausibly reflects bettors underweighting draw risk rather than private information.
- Signal vs. narrative: rankings, squad depth, and head-to-head history are signal; any narrative about a specific 'rebuilding' Sri Lankan side or Indian lineup experimentation is largely noise given roster uncertainty 5 days out.
What would change it: Confirmed venue in Sri Lanka plus weather forecasts showing significant rain across the 5 days (raising draw probability sharply), or India resting multiple first-choice players, would push my estimate toward 0.55–0.60.
Settlement source
Context
Kalshi prices this at 1%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $1,062,584 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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