Spread: Ravens (-1.5)

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTCLast checked 13 Sept 2026, 16:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-13T16:55:28.887Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

56.5%bid 56.0% / ask 57.0%24h volume $680 · liquidity $97Kas of 13 Sept, 16:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

51.0%against a market price of 59.0% at the timeYES
Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:48 UTC · Brier 0.2401
- The market line of Ravens -1.5 itself implies near-coin-flip coverage; a 1.5-point favorite covers slightly less often than it wins outright because ~2-3% of games are decided by exactly 1 point, which resolves NO here.
- Both teams entered 0-0, so this is a season opener; Week 1 games historically have higher variance and less reliable team-quality information, pushing the estimate toward the base rate rather than any narrative edge.
- The Colts' preseason performance was poor (0-2-1, outscored badly by Atlanta and Detroit), but preseason results with backup-heavy rosters are weak signal for regular-season outcomes; I give this only a small downward nudge to the Colts' chances, already partially baked into the spread.
- Critical unknowns — injury/availability status, starting quarterback situations, and home field — could not be established, so I cannot justify deviating far from the base rate implied by a minimal spread.
- Tie games resolve to Colts per the rules, which very slightly (well under 1%) reduces the Ravens-cover probability.
What would change it: News of a key Ravens injury (especially QB) or confirmation that the game is in Baltimore with a fully healthy roster would move my estimate meaningfully in the respective direction.
Settlement sourcet-0184

Polymarket prices this at 56.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $680 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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