Spread: James Madison (-12.5)

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCLast checked 17 Oct 2026, 15:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-17T15:55:30.215Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

40.0%bid 39.0% / ask 41.0%24h volume $2K · liquidity $57Kas of 17 Oct, 15:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

47.3%against a market price of 50.5% at the timeYES
Logged 14 Oct 2026, 15:01 UTC · Brier 0.2783
- Base rate: double-digit home favorites in this line band cover just under half the time, so the anchor is near a coin flip slightly tilted to the underdog covering.
- Georgia State is an unusually strong underdog for this line: 4-1 on the season with a 32-point demolition of Old Dominion in their most recent outing, which pushes toward a competitive game and against a 13+ point JMU win.
- James Madison is 6-0 but survived Georgia Southern by only 3 points on October 10, showing they can be kept close by Sun Belt competition; the 12.5 line requires a blowout, not just a win.
- Home field at Bridgeforth and JMU's undefeated record support the favorite side, but these factors are presumably already baked into the -12.5 line rather than being excess signal.
- Minor negative for JMU: WR Z. Collins is questionable while Georgia State has a clean injury report, a small signal toward the underdog but not decisive given Collins's status is unresolved.
What would change it: If Z. Collins is ruled out along with other JMU skill players, or if news emerges that Georgia State's 4-1 record came against markedly weak opposition while JMU dominated common opponents, I would shift the estimate several points toward JMU covering.
Settlement sourcet-0247

Polymarket prices this at 40.0%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $1,565 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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