Science City Jena vs. Fraport Skyliners

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTCContract settles 6 Nov 2026Last checked 29 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

23.6%bid 22.2% / ask 25.1%24h volume $7K · liquidity $4Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

20.2%against a market price of 11.5% at the timeOpen

Logged 28 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC

Base rate: the historical head-to-head is 11–3 in favor of Fraport, implying Jena wins ~21% of these matchups.
Jena is the home team at Sparkassen-Arena; home-court advantage in professional basketball is typically worth a few points of win probability, pushing Jena above the raw H2H rate.
Current season form favors Fraport: Skyliners are 3–1 with recent double-digit wins, while Jena is 2–3 and lost its most recent game by 47 points to Bonn — a strong signal of current weakness, though one game is only an anchor.
Injury information is stale (September) and roughly balanced — Jena's captain Christen vs. Skyliners' Knauf/Bedime — so it cannot be established as a net edge either way and is treated as narrative noise rather than signal.
No cross-book point spread was retrievable, so the estimate leans on H2H base rate plus home court and form adjustments, landing Jena near 29% to win outright.

What would change it: A confirmed pre-game report that Jena's captain Robin Christen (or another key starter) is out for October 30, or a market/bookmaker spread showing Fraport favored by double digits, would push the estimate down toward the low 20s.

+8.8 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Science City Jena has won 3 of 14 historical meetings with Fraport Skyliners (~21%).

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 29.0%, without sight of the price; published at 20.2%, the market’s 11.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

What this call was reading

The historical head-to-head record shown as of September 13, 2026, was 11 Fraport Skyliners wins and 3 Science City Jena wins. [web:122] as of 2026-09-13 · 365scores.com
Science City Jena is scheduled to host Fraport Skyliners in an easyCredit BBL regular-season game on October 30, 2026, at 18:30 local time. [web:1] as of 2026-10-28 · easycredit-bbl.de · within 14 days of this call
The October 30 game is scheduled at Sparkassen-Arena in Jena. [web:36] as of 2026-10-28 · thesportsdb.com · within 14 days of this call
Science City Jena’s 2026–27 BBL record was 2–3 as of October 27. [web:14] as of 2026-10-27 · mdr.de · within 14 days of this call
Science City Jena’s most recent completed game was a 115–68 loss to Telekom Baskets Bonn on October 9, a 47-point margin. [web:14] as of 2026-10-09 · mdr.de
Fraport Skyliners’ 2026–27 BBL record was 3–1 as of October 27. [web:14] as of 2026-10-27 · mdr.de · within 14 days of this call
Fraport Skyliners’ most recent completed game across competitions was a 113–97 win over U-BT Cluj-Napoca on October 27, a 16-point margin. [web:86] as of 2026-10-27 · frankfurt-skyliners.de · within 14 days of this call
Fraport Skyliners’ most recent completed BBL game was an 89–78 win over Veolia Towers Hamburg on October 11, an 11-point margin. [web:86] as of 2026-10-11 · frankfurt-skyliners.de
On September 17, Science City Jena reported that captain Robin Christen was sidelined with knee problems and had missed the start of its BBL season. [web:82] as of 2026-09-17 · baskets-jena.de
On September 11, Fraport Skyliners reported that Jacob Knauf was rehabbing an injury and Roman Bedime’s availability was uncertain after a shoulder injury. [web:64] as of 2026-09-11 · frankfurt-skyliners.de

Polymarket prices this at 23.6%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $6,517 on the busier venue. It closes in 1 day. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

Related markets

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This call is line t-0281 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.