Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?

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SettledContract settles 16 Oct 2026Last checked 16 Oct 2026, 03:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-16T03:55:27.097Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

1.5%bid 0.6% / ask 2.4%24h volume $5K · liquidity $29Kas of 16 Oct, 03:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

39.0%against a market price of 33.0% at the timeNO
Logged 10 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Brier 0.1521
- Base rate is low: territorial control rarely flips within five days, and the unverifiable status quo favors the incumbent holder.
- However, the YES condition may already be met: an October 9 report states Saudi-backed government forces (Giants Brigades, Nation Shield Forces) cleared Houthi forces from Mayyun Island and established control, which if true resolves the market YES without any further event.
- Directly conflicting same-day reporting says Houthi forces captured the island after government forces withdrew, so the ground truth is genuinely uncertain rather than merely unverified in one direction.
- Both sources are partisan-adjacent (Saudi-owned Asharq Al-Awsat favoring the Saudi-backed government; Egyptian state media reporting the Houthi capture), so neither claim deserves much weight over the other — signal is the existence of a credible claim of a control flip, narrative is each side's framing.
- The resolution rule requires only that Houthis no longer exercise primary military control by October 15, not that the government hold it durably, so even a temporary or contested clearing in the next five days could satisfy YES.
What would change it: Independent verification (e.g., neutral press on the ground, satellite imagery, or AP/Reuters confirmation) that Houthi forces retained or retook primary control of Mayyun Island after October 9.
Settlement sourcet-0237

Polymarket prices this at 1.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $5,098 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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