LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 18:10 UTCContract settles 24 Oct 2026Last checked 23 Oct 2026, 18:05 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-23T18:05:26.927Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

76.5%bid 76.0% / ask 77.0%24h volume $267K · liquidity $424Kas of 23 Oct, 18:05 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

72.3%against a market price of 78.5% at the timeYES
Logged 21 Oct 2026, 13:02 UTC · Brier 0.0770
- Seeding structure favors HLE: they are Swiss Tier 2 while TES is Tier 3, and tier gap is the main driver of the base rate in this class.
- Domestic performance supports HLE as the stronger side: 19-7 (73%) in the LCK Legend Group versus TES's 9-5 (64%) in the LPL Ascend Group, with LCK generally the stronger or co-equal region.
- HLE's listed roster (Zeus, Kanavi, Zeka, Gumayusi, Delight) is a star-laden lineup with multiple Worlds champions, a mild additional edge over TES's ZUIAN/Tian/Creme/JackeyLove/Zhuo.
- Recent form is mixed and slightly offsets: HLE lost 1-3 to Gen.G in LCK playoffs while TES won 3-1 over IG in LPL Regional Finals, though both margins were identical and opposition quality differs.
- BO1 variance is the main reason not to push higher; single-game cross-region matches at Worlds regularly produce upsets, so the estimate stays well short of the low-70s that domestic records alone might suggest.
- Key unknowns (no sportsbook line, no head-to-head, no match-day availability confirmation) cap confidence and keep the adjustment from base rate modest.
What would change it: A confirmed injury or substitution to an HLE starter, or an emerging consensus betting line favoring Top Esports, would most move this estimate downward.
Settlement sourcet-0264

Polymarket prices this at 76.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $267,331 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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