Juventus FC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 53.0%against a market price of 57.5% at the timeNO
Logged 26 Aug 2026, 03:58 UTC · Brier 0.2809
- Juventus at home against mid/lower-table Parma historically produces moderately higher-than-average scoring (Juve's attacking edge raises both own-goal and game-state-induced goal expectations), a genuine but modest signal worth a few points over the base rate.
- Early-season matches (late August) trend slightly higher scoring due to unsettled defenses and fitness gaps, a small positive signal; countervailing signal is Juventus's recent-season identity as a comparatively low-scoring, controlled side (many 1-0/2-0 results).
- My independent estimate (~53%) sits a few points below the market's 57.5%; the divergence is plausibly explained by recreational bettor bias toward Overs and the small book ($10.7k resting) allowing prices to drift from fair value.
What would change it: Confirmed lineups showing Juventus resting key attackers or Parma setting up an ultra-defensive low block would push my estimate down toward or below 50%.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 57%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $41,258 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.