Juventus FC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: 1st Half O/U 1.5
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 44.0%against a market price of 36.5% at the timeNO
Logged 26 Aug 2026, 03:58 UTC · Brier 0.1936
- Signal: reference-class rate for 1H O1.5 in Serie A sits around 40–44%, so the fair price should cluster near that absent strong case-specific factors.
- Signal (mild): Juventus at home against a defensively weaker Parma tilts slightly upward — favorites at home generate more early pressure and early goals — but Juventus matches have historically skewed lower-scoring, which caps the adjustment; net effect roughly +2 to +4 points.
- Narrative-vs-price: the market at 36.5% sits meaningfully below the base rate; with only ~$3,775 resting book and unreported volume, thin liquidity is a plausible cause of the divergence rather than genuine information about a low-scoring setup.
What would change it: Confirmed team news on matchday showing Juventus heavily rotating attacking players or Parma adopting an explicit low-block, damage-limitation lineup would push this toward or below the market's 36.5%.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 38%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $3,552 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
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