Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledContract settles 1 Sept 2026Last checked 1 Sept 2026, 06:01 UTC

PM2.1%bid 0.2% / ask 4.1%24h volume $29K · liquidity $44Kas of 1 Sept, 06:01 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

11.0%against a market price of 14.6% at the timeNO
Logged 28 Aug 2026, 03:49 UTC · Brier 0.0121
- Time decay dominates: only ~4 days remain, and a qualifying meeting must not only be agreed but actually occur and be publicly confirmed before 11:59 PM ET Aug 31 — most diplomatic encounters don't materialize on that timeline without prior scheduling.
- Signal, not narrative: there is a genuinely active channel — US-mediated Israel-Lebanon contacts have occurred repeatedly since the Nov 2024 ceasefire (including civilian-level direct talks in 2025 and ongoing disarmament/border diplomacy), and the resolution criteria explicitly allow indirect meetings through designated mediators, which broadens what qualifies. This justifies a probability well above the raw base rate.
- The market's 14.6% vs. my ~11% is a small divergence plausibly explained by traders pricing in rumored near-term meetings or hedging on a last-minute announced session; nothing in the volume ($6.9k/24h) suggests strong informed flow, so I don't treat the gap as a major signal against my estimate.
What would change it: An official announcement or credible report of a scheduled Israel-Lebanon (direct or mediator-hosted) meeting within the next four days would push my estimate sharply higher, likely above 50%.
Settlement source

Context

Polymarket prices this at 2%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $29,083 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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