Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledContract settles 31 Aug 2026Last checked 31 Aug 2026, 20:55 UTC

PM3.1%bid 1.4% / ask 4.8%24h volume $1K · liquidity $15Kas of 31 Aug, 20:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

26.0%against a market price of 29.9% at the timeNO
Logged 28 Aug 2026, 04:07 UTC · Brier 0.0676
- Outside view: a Poisson rate near 25–35 qualifying strikes/year implies about 24–32% for at least one in four days; with only ~96 hours left there is little time for mean reversion, so a discrete trigger is needed.
- Inside view: the prompt contains no verified launch, impact, airspace closure, retaliation vow with deadline, or other hard signal; generic regional-tension chatter is narrative, so I shade below the high-escalation end of the base range rather than above it.
- After forming that estimate, the 29.9% market is a few points richer; with only ~$7.6k 24h volume the gap is plausibly thin-liquidity/salience premium or a small real-news signal, so I update only slightly toward it.
What would change it: A verified Israeli strike/impact in Syria or an unmistakable imminent-retaliation trigger before Aug 31 would jump this sharply upward, while an explicit stand-down/quiet front through the deadline would resolve it NO.
Settlement source

Context

Polymarket prices this at 3%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $1,357 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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