Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 10.0%against a market price of 15.0% at the timeNO
Logged 17 Aug 2026, 04:38 UTC · Brier 0.0100
- Time decay dominates: with only 6 days to close, a formal Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement would need to be essentially complete and scheduled already; diplomatic agreements of this sensitivity typically involve extended negotiation, domestic sign-off in Tehran, and advance signaling, none of which compresses well into a week.
- Signal vs. narrative: the only hard signal available is that the market sits at 15% with modest volume (~$12k/24h), suggesting some traders believe negotiations are live; the narrative risk is that routine Iran-Oman diplomacy (a historically warm back-channel relationship) gets over-read as an imminent deal when most such talks produce communiqués, not signed agreements.
- My independent estimate of ~10% is modestly below the market's 15%; the divergence is plausibly explained by the market pricing in late-stage negotiation rumors I cannot verify, and by a small YES-bias from traders anchored on Oman'’s mediator role rather than on the low base rate of signed agreements inside a 6-day window.
What would change it: A credible report (Reuters/AP or official Iranian/Omani statements) that a signing ceremony is scheduled or that finalized text has been agreed would push this sharply higher; absence of any such announcement by ~48 hours before close pushes it toward 2-3%.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 1%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $7,409 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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