Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs magic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 17:20 UTCContract settles 19 Oct 2026Last checked 19 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-19T17:15:29.531Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

58.5%bid 58.0% / ask 59.0%24h volume $403K · liquidity $62Kas of 19 Oct, 17:15 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

65.3%against a market price of 59.5% at the timeYES
Logged 15 Oct 2026, 13:02 UTC · Brier 0.1208
- PARIVISION is listed Tier 1 and magic Tier 2, so the base rate favors PARIVISION before any match-specific evidence.
- Head-to-head signal: PARIVISION already beat magic 2–0 in a BO3 five weeks before this fixture; a single prior meeting is an anchor, not a distribution, but it points the same direction as the tier gap.
- Roster quality signal: PARIVISION fields established top-level names (Jame, HObbit, FL1T) while magic's registration lists a lower-profile mix, reinforcing the tier classification rather than contradicting it.
- magic's superior win rates (63% 12-month, 34-16 in 2026 vs PARIVISION's 53% and 28-22) are largely strength-of-schedule narrative — Tier 2 teams pad records against weaker opposition — so I discount them heavily rather than treating them as equal-weight signal.
- Recent form is a mild negative for both (PARIVISION 0–2 to Legacy, magic 0–2 to GamerLegion), roughly offsetting; it does not move the estimate.
- No availability data for either roster was retrievable, so I keep some probability mass on an upset or stand-in scenario and stay below the low-70s rather than pushing toward 0.80.
What would change it: Confirmed news that a PARIVISION starter (especially Jame or FL1T) will not play on October 19, or magic taking map 1 convincingly, would move this toward or below 0.55.
Settlement sourcet-0249

Polymarket prices this at 58.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $402,503 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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