Cardinals vs. Rams

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTCLast checked 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-18T20:00:32.163Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

13.5%bid 13.0% / ask 14.0%24h volume $216K · liquidity $1.7Mas of 18 Oct, 20:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

19.8%against a market price of 12.5% at the timeYES
Logged 13 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC · Brier 0.6440
- The Rams (2-3) host the Cardinals (1-4) at SoFi Stadium, fitting the home-better-record reference class where the visitor wins roughly a third of the time.
- All-time head-to-head favors the Rams (53 wins to Arizona's 41 through 2025), a weak but directionally consistent anchor.
- Arizona's injury situation is materially worse: RB James Conner and OT Paris Johnson Jr. are on injured reserve, with OL Isaiah Adams out and two more defenders questionable — signal, not narrative, for a weakened road underdog.
- Jacoby Brissett being listed as Arizona's projected starter implies the Cardinals are without their franchise QB (Murray), which typically costs a team several points of win equity; this pushes the estimate below the base rate.
- Countervailing signal: the Rams just lost 37-34 to Buffalo and their own record is only 2-3, and Arizona's 1-4 may overstate how bad they are; this keeps the estimate well above zero.
- The Rams' only listed injury concern is safety Quentin Lake (questionable), a much lighter report than Arizona's.
What would change it: If Kyler Murray is confirmed as Arizona's starter and the Rams' injury report worsens significantly before Sunday, the Cardinals' win probability would rise toward or above the 34% base rate.
Settlement sourcet-0244

Polymarket prices this at 13.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $216,368 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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