Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5

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SettledEvent date Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTCLast checked 25 Oct 2026, 16:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-25T16:55:28.403Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

51.5%bid 51.0% / ask 52.0%24h volume $71K · liquidity $391Kas of 25 Oct, 16:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

46.8%against a market price of 50.5% at the timeYES
Logged 21 Oct 2026, 21:02 UTC · Brier 0.2836
- The computed outside view is the correct anchor: totals in the 42.5–44.5 band have gone over only 45.7% of the time across five-plus seasons, so the prior leans under at this line.
- Tampa Bay's offense is meaningfully depleted: WR Egbuka (concussion/foot), T Goedeke (calf), and RB Irving (illness) all missed Wednesday's practice, a cluster of potential offensive absences that suppresses scoring for the 1-5 Bucs.
- Countervailing over signals exist on defense: TB safety Winfield Jr. is limited (rib), CB McCollum is out sick, and Carolina edge rusher Phillips is expected not to play, weakening both defenses.
- Both quarterbacks (Mayfield, Young) were full practice participants, so neither offense loses its most important player; this limits how far below base rate the estimate should move.
- Recent results are mixed and only single observations: TB's last game totaled 45 points (26-19 OT loss) while Carolina's totaled 39 (25-14 win), so they do not justify a large adjustment on their own.
- Net: the offensive injury cluster on Tampa Bay slightly outweighs the defensive absences, pulling the estimate a few points below the 45.7% base rate; the 44.5 line itself likely already prices much of this, capping the size of the adjustment.
What would change it: If Egbuka, Irving, and Goedeke all return to full practice participation by Friday and are cleared to play, my under lean disappears and the estimate reverts toward the 45.7% base rate.
Settlement sourcet-0266

Polymarket prices this at 51.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $70,726 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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