Bills vs. Texans: O/U 44.5

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SettledEvent date Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTCLast checked 13 Sept 2026, 16:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-13T16:55:28.887Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

49.5%bid 49.0% / ask 50.0%24h volume $15K · liquidity $208Kas of 13 Sept, 16:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

46.0%against a market price of 51.5% at the timeYES
Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:32 UTC · Brier 0.2916
- Houston's offense is depleted: WR Jayden Higgins out for the season (torn ACL), WR Tank Dell on IR, and OT Braden Smith on IR, all of which point to a weaker Texans scoring output and push toward the Under.
- Buffalo's top WRs Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman are questionable, adding modest downside risk to the Bills' passing production as well.
- Weather forecast (90°F, 9 mph crosswind, 45% rain chance mid-game) is a mild Under signal, though NRG Stadium's retractable roof and Houston heat make the roof likely to be closed, muting this factor.
- The 44.5 line is already relatively low for a modern NFL game, so sportsbooks have likely priced in much of the injury news; this limits how far below 50% the Over probability should be pushed.
- None of the retrieved facts indicate a reason this game would be unusually high-scoring (no noted defensive absences or elite offensive form), so the net case-specific signal leans Under, but only modestly.
What would change it: If final inactive lists show both Bills WRs active and the Texans elevate competent replacements, while the roof is closed and both offenses play to recent scoring norms, the Over would be closer to a coin flip (~50%).
Settlement sourcet-0181

Polymarket prices this at 49.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $15,132 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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