Bills vs. Texans

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTCLast checked 13 Sept 2026, 16:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-13T16:55:28.887Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

51.5%bid 51.0% / ask 52.0%24h volume $462K · liquidity $1.8Mas of 13 Sept, 16:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

62.0%against a market price of 50.5% at the timeYES
Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:30 UTC · Brier 0.1444
- The game is at Buffalo (Texans players are described as missing 'the game against Buffalo'), so the Bills get the standard home-field advantage of roughly 2-3 points.
- Houston's receiving corps is significantly depleted: Jayden Higgins is out for the season (torn ACL) and Tank Dell is on injured reserve, weakening their passing attack in a game where they'd likely need to keep pace with Buffalo's offense.
- Houston also lost starting offensive tackle Braden Smith to IR, compounding protection problems against a strong Bills defense.
- Buffalo's injury concerns are milder: Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman are only questionable, and questionable designations frequently resolve to active by game day; final designations were not available, which is a residual uncertainty.
- Houston went 0-3 in the preseason, which is weak signal at best (preseason results correlate poorly with regular-season outcomes), but combined with the injury picture it slightly reinforces the case against them.
- Buffalo is an established contender led by Josh Allen; absent contrary evidence about Bills injuries, the inside view pushes above the home-team base rate, but single-game NFL outcomes retain high variance (favorites of ~4-5 points lose roughly a third of the time).
What would change it: Confirmation that Shakir and/or Coleman are ruled out combined with Josh Allen or other key Bills starters appearing on the injury report would push this back toward the home-team base rate near 0.55.
Settlement sourcet-0180

Polymarket prices this at 51.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $461,554 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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