Bills vs. Texans
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-09T04:55:28.893Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
50.5%bid 50.0% / ask 51.0%24h volume $3K · liquidity $117Kas of 9 Sept, 04:55 UTCView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
- 62.0%against a market price of 50.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:30 UTC
- The game is at Buffalo (Texans players are described as missing 'the game against Buffalo'), so the Bills get the standard home-field advantage of roughly 2-3 points.
- Houston's receiving corps is significantly depleted: Jayden Higgins is out for the season (torn ACL) and Tank Dell is on injured reserve [f1, f2], weakening their passing attack in a game where they'd likely need to keep pace with Buffalo's offense.
- Houston also lost starting offensive tackle Braden Smith to IR [f3], compounding protection problems against a strong Bills defense.
- Buffalo's injury concerns are milder: Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman are only questionable [f4, f5], and questionable designations frequently resolve to active by game day; final designations were not available, which is a residual uncertainty.
- Houston went 0-3 in the preseason [f7], which is weak signal at best (preseason results correlate poorly with regular-season outcomes), but combined with the injury picture it slightly reinforces the case against them.
- Buffalo is an established contender led by Josh Allen; absent contrary evidence about Bills injuries, the inside view pushes above the home-team base rate, but single-game NFL outcomes retain high variance (favorites of ~4-5 points lose roughly a third of the time).
What would change it: Confirmation that Shakir and/or Coleman are ruled out combined with Josh Allen or other key Bills starters appearing on the injury report would push this back toward the home-team base rate near 0.55.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 50.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $3,000 on the busier venue. It closes in 5 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.